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How much money will be spent on
the Iowa Caucuses? With
the Iowa Caucus positioned to be the first caucus in the nation for the
2008 presidential race, and with this being the first presidential election
since 1928* in which neither party is actively promoting a sitting president or
vice president for the election, the significance is big...and the dollars
spent will echo that sentiment. Each presidential
candidate, on average, could spend anywhere from $1,674,000.00 to $5,022,000.00 just to ensure a finish
within the top
half of the Iowa Caucuses. With an approximate total of 20 candidates
representing both parties, the total amount of spending by the candidates for the Iowa
Caucus could reach as high as $23,436,000.00 and beyond $30,132,000.00 - and
this is a conservative estimate.
(See http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/historical.html.)
*The
1928 election was between Herbert C. Hoover and Alfred E. Smith because
neither the standing President nor the Vice President chose to run. However,
in 1952, the new President elect would be subject to the 22nd Amendment that
limited the Presidents office to only 8 years. The sitting
President, Harry S. Truman, was allowed to proceed with a third term as
President, however, he abandoned his campaign after the 1952 New Hampshire
primary when he lost to Estes Kefauver.
The aforementioned spending
prediction is based upon the estimate of the 2004 presidential election
nationwide. The cost for both parties was almost half a billion dollars
for their combined receipts for just the primary campaigns, and this figure
doesn't include general elections or conventions, according to the Federal
Election Commission. With that being the case, each candidate would have spent
close to
$240,000,000.00 nationwide.
(See http://www.fec.gov/press/press2005/20050203pressum/presbigpic.pdf.)
According to the U.S. Censes Bureau, the total number of Americans
eligible to vote in 2004 was around 215,694,000 and only 142,070,000 registered to
vote in 2004. Therefore, roughly .90
cents was spent per eligible voter nationwide, whether they voted or not, and around
$1.59 was spent per registered voter, all for the sake of grabbing the
potential voters attention and, hopefully, persuading them to vote a
particular way.
(See http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/07s0406.xls.)
The U.S. Censes Bureau reports the current
registered-to-vote population of Iowa to be approximately 1,674,000 citizens
out of a total population of 2,982,085. Iowa ranks 30th in population
size in the United States. Therefore, using a conservative estimate on
dollars spent
nationwide for the presidential campaign of 2004, each candidate would have
spent between $1.00 to $1.50 per registered Iowa voter. That would mean that the candidates who campaign
in Iowa could be
spending anywhere from $1,674,000.00 to $2,661,660.00 or greater to show well in the
Iowa Caucuses.
(See Voting Population
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/07s0406.xls.)
(See Iowa Population
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ranks/rank01.htm.)
What are the candidates campaign funds spent
on for the Iowa Caucuses?
Judging by the recent caucuses of 2004, and from
discussions with Iowa residents, allot of the money
appears to be spent on television and radio ads, automated phone calls and
person-to-person telephone solicitations to registered party members, and
direct mailers reminding registered party members about upcoming meetings and gatherings. The
event
that seems to garner the most free press would probably be the good old
fashioned assembly hall type meeting where a candidate makes a scheduled visit to
a particular Iowa community. Typically, the meeting takes place at a
local High School or University, Hotel Conference Center, or other public
building in order to draw a
crowd to allow the candidate to move freely amongst the public, shaking hands,
answering questions, discussing platform issues, and, hopefully, inspiring
fund raisers to assist with campaign donations. Most all candidates
receive air time because, even if
they are the new guy on the block, Iowans tend to have a curious nature and,
coupled with a typical upbringing of good manners and hospitableness, enjoy
engaging others in discussions on political and social issues. And in the
end, let's face it, there are no oceans to swim, mountains to climb, or
mega-malls to shop, so candidates have a captive audience for the most part.
(See IA Funds Raised http://www.crp.org/states/presgeog.asp?State=IA&Year=2006.)
Do the campaign funds spent on the Iowa
Caucuses have an
effect on voters?
Television ads promoted in Iowa
are an excellent avenue of advertisement for relatively unknown
candidates to generate a buzz of inquiry and discussion about themselves at the family dinner table.
Word-of-mouth takes over as the candidate buzz spreads from one family to
another, and from one friend to another, and from one colleague to
another. In 2004, only the Democrats held a competitive caucus for nomination to the
White House. During that caucus, some of the candidates spent close to one million in
advertisements in Iowa alone just to get their name out. Some of those
candidates, such as John Edwards and Howard Dean, were not even well known
until their ads aired in Iowa.
(See
http://www.polisci.wisc.edu/tvadvertising/.)
How much money can one person
contribute?
The Federal Election Commission
is best suited to quote contribution amounts and limits on those
amounts. The
agency has put together the guidelines for contribution rates per
individual citizen and per committee.
(See http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/contrib.shtml.)
How
do the Democratic
and Republican Caucuses and Primaries work?
Democrats
and Republicans participate with their own party members
exclusively to decide
their presidential preferences for the election. It should be noted that the
Democratic party
was the first party to initiate the Caucus procedure. The
Republican party followed with a Straw Poll. For all of the Caucus
and Primary details in a nut shell, please see: http://www.iowacaucus.biz/IA_Caucus_Howitworks.html.
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What are the projections for new promotional
spending?
Judging by the number of candidates since 2004 who are
using the Internet to announce their intentions to set up an exploratory
committee to run
for president in 2008, the Internet will be a huge growth area for
individual candidates to gather support and provide information about
themselves. The Internet does provide one benefit to the candidates and that is instant publishing. This allows the
candidate to push their political opinions and to respond quickly to criticism
from their opponents before even the newspapers and news programs on
television can get the full response.
This is the first time in history where each candidate can have at their disposal
new technologies that allow them to publish their own articles
and information quickly and without all the printing and distribution cost of
mailings.
What are the projections of what we will not
see?
It is doubtful that we will see any
action figures of
politicians anytime soon. Unlike the Minnesota campaign of 1998, when Jesse
Ventura
ran for governor and ran commercials introducing his own action figure, I
wouldn't count on any of the current candidates tapping into the nonexistent
political action figure niche to promote their campaign.
Is the Iowa Caucus important in this
process?
The caucuses are primarily for the
Democratic and Republican parties. In the last 30+ years, starting in the 1970s when Iowa moved its
caucus to be the first caucus in the nation, Iowa has become a predictor in identifying the top
three candidates from both parties. Only those candidates
who
finish in the top half of their party typically move on to campaign strong
in other states. In fact, in the past, the Iowa Caucuses have become more of a
clearing field in determining which candidates will stay in the race and which
candidates will throw in the towel. This would appear to be a more accurate
depiction of Iowa's role in the presidential campaigns than in determining which
candidate will be nominated by their respective party. Iowa does play a
big part in allowing candidates a chance
to showcase their political prowess to a fairly middle of the road state.
(See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus.)
Iowa appears to be picking up on the nation's mood as a whole
because, for
the last 9 Iowa Caucuses, Iowa has identified the nation's two primary picks
for the top runner from both the Democratic and
Republican party in 5 out of 9 caucuses. However, as time goes on, the importance of Iowa may become more
significant to the individual candidates running for president than to their
individual party simply because it may be cheaper to campaign in Iowa than
in many of the other states entertaining the notion of scheduling their primaries closer to the
Iowa Caucus. A win in an early state that is cheaper
to campaign in gives an advantage to those candidates who would
normally not have the funds to campaign in a larger state. Larger
states will cost the candidates a greater amount of upfront capital to campaign
per registered voter. In addition, Iowa has its population clustered into regions
within the state, which makes it easier
to reach potential audiences. Campaigning in a state like Iowa has
advantages over larger states because their media outlets will focus on candidates
as though they were celebrities, giving them free press and headline news,
whereas other states would continue to cater to local celebrities, athletes, and business leaders,
giving them the coverage and headline news, which would overshadow a
political campaign candidate.
Finally, Iowa and other states
of similar size are playing a
larger role in close elections because of the electoral college. In 2000,
the difference between the winner and loser was only 5 electoral votes,
which means states like Arkansas, Tennessee, and Iowa can change an
election outcome drastically.
(See http://www.c-span.org/classroom/govt/electoral-cards.asp.)
(See http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itdhr/1004/ijde/cook.htm.)
We thank the following resources:
National Archives
http://www.archives.gov/
Federal Election Commission
http://www.fec.gov/
U.S. Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/
OpenSecrets.org
http://www.crp.org/
Wisconsin Advertising Project
http://www.polisci.wisc.edu/tvadvertising/
Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus
C-SPAN Electoral College
http://www.c-span.org/classroom/govt/electoral-cards.asp
e-JournalUSA 2004 Electoral College Article
http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itdhr/1004/ijde/cook.htm
OpenSecrets
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp
FEC
http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_08+00+PR
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